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Comment on Market Behavior
Over the last few days we have cautioned against getting too bullish despite our own long position; laying out a scenario that could possibly spur lower gold prices in conjunction with lower Oil and decreased geopolitical tensions.
There is no headline news confirming this concept at all. But traders are starting to price things that way now. The only material thing corroborating our “story” is that Russia’s oil revenues are lower again.
Russia’s crude production totaled 9.533m b/d in May, or 416k b/d lower than in February: OPEC
In February Russia sold Gold to make the difference up in their production cut revenues. The market is sniffing out they will sell gold again.
Markets move on two things. Probabilities of outcomes they can see and handicap is the first. The second is events they cannot see at all. Right now, they can “see” what we are describing.
If Russia won’t or hasn’t sold Gold again, the market will be wrong ( one they cannot see) and Gold will spike for sure. But until then use the technical levels. We are below 1962 now. Get friendly above 1962.
Powell’s hawkish pause was not helpful either. With the big buyer finished and the monetary news bearish, we wait
