All About Gold and Oil Today | Market Rundown
Very Rare Macro Call From Moor says $500 of Upside Attainable
Housekeeping: New daily format based on requests and some ideas. Lots of Oil stuff out lately.
Today:
Market Rundown
Report Excerpts
Analysis: Oil, Gold Technicals, Crack Technicals
Zen Moment
1- Market Rundown
Good Morning. The dollar is up 12. Bonds are flat. Stocks are offered down 10 bps. Gold is up $2.50. Silver is down 16c. Oil is up 5c. NG is up 1c. BTC is up 1.5% and ETH is up 2.2%. Grains are all lower with Wheat down 2%
Comments: Gold and Oil
Collab with BKK
Commodity Time Zone Buying Flips American
Big day yesterday in Gold and Silver. Big because….. Asia sold, US bought. For now the overnight metric has flipped. The US is buying both PMs and Oil during hours. And there is no appreciable change when EU closes.
For metals, it means the US investor has the fever, and the bigger institutions allocated money after the ATH Q1 close. It’s that simple.
For Oil that implies driving season kicking into higher gear. RB Gasoline is largely a US domestic product.
Yellow Gold: Q1 close means more flows
This is a mini buy season for Gold and Silver. Lets see how it bases after they are done.
The CBs are definitely watching closely, and Gold magically stopped at up 2% on the day again...
Black Gold: Reality Check for US Policy
For Oil it is a little different. Aside from the behavior that is potentially Fed policy related, and the fundamentals which are healthy again (were they ever not?) the downside risk here is political.
The Gov’t has a new-found superpower in throttling domestic demand by hook or by crook. They used it quite successfully during last year’s driving season.
Recall from BKK’s The SPR Question in late January:
This may seem hard to believe, but there is precedent that this writer remembers very clearly from the late 1990's power de-regulation speculative plays that disappointed many bulls then. During this time, the government got smarter, more arrogant, and lucky in their "risk management"
It was, we feel, no accident that Gasoline prices dropped from any number of reasons after peaking last year. Beside Fed rate hikes there was massive futures suppression in WTI from rehypothecation (Works for Gold.. will work in Oil for a while) and telegraphed SPR selling. Look for that tactic to happen again. But when is not known.
Brynne continued…
Rather than suppliers feeling all the heat, the demand side (consumers) began to feel the heat too as regulations were used as a means of zeroing out demand. They figured out that you cold offset supply shortfalls by using demand side throttling. Who said the gov't doesn't understand supply/demand economics?!
One thing is different this year than last. There is no election to fight for. Maybe they let it breathe a little. Who knows.
One final comment: Isn’t it odd how Oil just stopped on a dime yesterday up $5.00?
Have a good day.
2- Report Excerpts
Goldman Wants you to know Oil is going up…
Morgan Stanley Wants you to know Oil is Going Down…
**Michael Moor thinks we are on the Cusp of a $500 move in Gold now…
Crack levels
More Below…