Bank Asks: What Does Gold Do Post a Trump (Harris) Victory?

DB Precious Metals Report

DB Precious Metals Report – Policy and Debt Influences on Gold

Contents: (1400 words)

1. Executive Summary

2. Gold’s Correlation to US Debt is 1 to 1

3. Trade and Tariff Policy Ambiguities

4. Comment: Trump with and Without Tariffs

5. Immigration Policy as a Wild Card for Gold

6. Foreign Policy and Gold Price Sensitivities

7. Gold and Post-Election Dispute Risk

   1. Risk of Election Disputes

   2. Remember McCain’s Concession?

   3. Trump Must Leave No Doubt

1. Executive Summary

The latest DB analyst report, looks at how the U.S. 2024 presidential election outcomes may influence gold prices through anticipated shifts in policy, federal debt, and trade dynamics.

We would follow the intuition that this tips the balance in favour of gold higher on a Trump victory (+2%%), and gold lower on a Harris victory (-2%). We would expect a gold sell-off to be short-lived as Asian import and central bank demand would balance against speculative futures outflow.

The bank emphasizes that gold's reaction will largely hinge on projected federal debt growth and deviations in U.S. policy.