BOA on Gold and Silver: Tug of War in 2025

Trump's Policies versus China Demand

Housekeeping: Good Afternoon.

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Contents: (1500 words)

1. Gold: BRICS Big Picture Meets US Macro Policy-Change

   1. American Investor Behavior

   2. Real Rates and Fiscal Pain

   3. Policy Impacts on Gold

   4. But Debt is a Global Problem

   5. Bottom Line: Shorts Licking Wounds

2. Silver: US Supply Meets China Demand

   1. Market Deficits Persist

   2. China Premium is No Joke

   3. Technological Cost-Cutting

   4. Gold/Silver ratio to fall by another 10 points

   5. Bottom Line: If Trump Acts, China Must React

   6. BOA Says Silver’s Turn in 2025

3. BOA’s Year Ahead 2025: Commodity Outlook Summary

   1. Tariffs, weak EMs cast bearish cloud on commodities

   2. US gas may outpace oil as metals remain rangebound

   3. Modest total returns ahead, but diversification may hold