some quick reactions/questions from reading/seeing what's out there
1. i thought the "big news" was cutting the tariffs--ie usa cuts to 30%, china 10%
2. agree that this is inflationary, and industrial commodities should do well--eg oil, but also, surely, silver. i see oil is doing well--but why not silver, as it was earlier in the evening, before collapsing to down a dollar (so it has recovered a bit, but not as much as i expected when i put it on as a kind of a hedge on friday morning)
3. i totally get the head & shoulders point--but am surprised the $ is so strong: do you see that as a new/continuing trend?
1- this is about getting a tires reduced. I don’t know what the exact qualifications are, but it needs to be something that makes both sides happy
2- I mentioned during the interview about why Silver is not performing like it should.
3- in the short term yes I think in the very, very long-term the dollar has to go down significantly if a deal is cut. But in the initial reaction to a deal, it makes countries slow down on the dollar rising. They think there’s hope and they’re going to use for trade. So you have this bounce. There are a lot of shorts in the market right now so you could see the dollar ad stocks rally at the same time.
perhaps i’m not getting it because i’m too focused on the industrial applications of silver? yeah—get the point about a very short term technical $ rally. just doesnt feel all that sustainable?!
Is this fucking around with Trump spitting his comforter and throwing his toys out of his stroller at all helpful? There doesnt look much like a strategy to me. This is a joke. Tariffs up 130% down 100%. Am I the only one who is sick of this fuckwit. American exceptionalism? Please. 3 D Chess? “The art of the deal” The USA caused the Ukraine war. Trained 800,000 Ukraine troops and funded the war machine since 2014…and LOST And Trump wants to play peace-broker…when the USA caused this war and over 2 million dead people and Ukraine is ANOTHER failed state. This is unbearable for anyone that appreciates honesty or a “safe pair of hands” after 4 years of a dementia patient/kiddy fiddler.
Just an observation: seems like VIX is low for all the gaps. Gap in Euro, Gaps in SPX, Gap in GOLD between 3323 - 3311 ...
And with DXY recovering September 2024's high before it went on it's recent bull run, it doesn't look like US Manufacturing is getting weaker dollar just yet...
If the purpose of tariffs is to onshore manufacturing what is there to negotiate? Unless of course there is another purpose for tariffs. My Speculation 1. Raise taxes 2. Hurt Chinese exports to the U.S. If Trump were serious about reshoring manufacturing we would see other incentives like tax breaks, startup access to funding, what we are getting are oligarch handouts to firms like NVDIA which are already flush with capital. Tariffs hinder entrepreneurial activity in manufacturing. Where do they think the robotics and technology required for modern manufacturing come from? They come from China.
hi vince--watching this now
some quick reactions/questions from reading/seeing what's out there
1. i thought the "big news" was cutting the tariffs--ie usa cuts to 30%, china 10%
2. agree that this is inflationary, and industrial commodities should do well--eg oil, but also, surely, silver. i see oil is doing well--but why not silver, as it was earlier in the evening, before collapsing to down a dollar (so it has recovered a bit, but not as much as i expected when i put it on as a kind of a hedge on friday morning)
3. i totally get the head & shoulders point--but am surprised the $ is so strong: do you see that as a new/continuing trend?
1- this is about getting a tires reduced. I don’t know what the exact qualifications are, but it needs to be something that makes both sides happy
2- I mentioned during the interview about why Silver is not performing like it should.
3- in the short term yes I think in the very, very long-term the dollar has to go down significantly if a deal is cut. But in the initial reaction to a deal, it makes countries slow down on the dollar rising. They think there’s hope and they’re going to use for trade. So you have this bounce. There are a lot of shorts in the market right now so you could see the dollar ad stocks rally at the same time.
thanks vince
yes i heard the goldilocks thing
perhaps i’m not getting it because i’m too focused on the industrial applications of silver? yeah—get the point about a very short term technical $ rally. just doesnt feel all that sustainable?!
@vbl silver is outperforming gold & regaining its losses from yesterday (tho not with any help from copper)
also $dxy is now below the 102 handle & perhaps accelerating into giving up its gains from yesterday.
perhaps sanity is returning
Is this fucking around with Trump spitting his comforter and throwing his toys out of his stroller at all helpful? There doesnt look much like a strategy to me. This is a joke. Tariffs up 130% down 100%. Am I the only one who is sick of this fuckwit. American exceptionalism? Please. 3 D Chess? “The art of the deal” The USA caused the Ukraine war. Trained 800,000 Ukraine troops and funded the war machine since 2014…and LOST And Trump wants to play peace-broker…when the USA caused this war and over 2 million dead people and Ukraine is ANOTHER failed state. This is unbearable for anyone that appreciates honesty or a “safe pair of hands” after 4 years of a dementia patient/kiddy fiddler.
Thank you as always Vince!
Just an observation: seems like VIX is low for all the gaps. Gap in Euro, Gaps in SPX, Gap in GOLD between 3323 - 3311 ...
And with DXY recovering September 2024's high before it went on it's recent bull run, it doesn't look like US Manufacturing is getting weaker dollar just yet...
If the purpose of tariffs is to onshore manufacturing what is there to negotiate? Unless of course there is another purpose for tariffs. My Speculation 1. Raise taxes 2. Hurt Chinese exports to the U.S. If Trump were serious about reshoring manufacturing we would see other incentives like tax breaks, startup access to funding, what we are getting are oligarch handouts to firms like NVDIA which are already flush with capital. Tariffs hinder entrepreneurial activity in manufacturing. Where do they think the robotics and technology required for modern manufacturing come from? They come from China.
@john ph vigman
yes good food is never too late:
that was mysteriously cool!
do you see more to come?