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1. Open Interest and Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis
Initial discussion of silver and gold futures activity
Focus on open interest changes and trader sentiment
Setup of market context using COMEX data
2. Bollinger Bands and Technical Trading Strategies
Silver trade example
Introduction to using Bollinger Bands as signal filters
Expansion into breakout criteria and risk management via options
3. Options Behavior and Derivative Insights in Metals
Exploration of call buying by long swap dealers
Analysis of options flow vs futures positioning
Discussion on dealer hedging behavior and embedded signals
4. Macro Discretionary Traders and Market Psychology
Identification of 10,000+ OI spikes as macro entries
Contrast between macro behavior and CTA trend followers
Commentary on who’s driving direction in current markets
5. WTI vs. Brent Oil Structural Shifts and Global Demand Centers
Eastward shift in oil market pricing centers
Complexity of oil contracts (ICE vs CME)
Brief reflections on demand shifts post-North Sea
6. The Role of China in Physical Gold and Silver Demand
China's buying patterns (Shanghai hours vs fix buying)
Central bank influence and changes in behavior
Structural discussion around OTC vs COMEX dynamics
7. Middle East Geopolitics and Implications for Oil and Gold
Extended dialogue on Israeli-Iran conflict
Implications for oil supply and safe-haven flows
Interplay between diplomacy, military signaling, and commodities
8. Caucasus Region’s Strategic Importance in Global Energy and Trade
Historical and geopolitical value of the region
Reference to Brzezinski's The Grand Chessboard
Strategic pipelines, Caspian control, and Silk Road context
9. Volatility Cycles and Liquidity Behavior in Commodities
Volume-per-price movement ratio framework
Use of “fishhook” price-action models
Trading sheet concept: reading buying strength through OI behavior
10. Fish hook origin: Educational Commentary on Historical Market Behavior and Trader Psychology
Anecdotes from options trading floor-
Real-time behavioral examples from banks and funds
Application of theory to trade execution and risk management
Gold:
Silver:
short dealers are NOT happy here
fear vs greed now
