CITI: Convexity in Gold and The Case for Vertical Repricing

with mini-pod

TL;DR

• Citi expects short-term selling pressure driven by cross-asset de-risking and geopolitical volatility, but maintains a bullish medium-term trajectory toward ~$5,000/oz.

• Scenario Framework Skews Higher
  Base case (~50%) sees a grind to $5,000; bull case (~30%) reaches $6,000 in 2026 and $7,000 in 2027 under stagflation and prolonged geopolitical stress; bear case (~20%) falls toward ~$4,000.

• Market Structure = Small Market, Big Moves
  Gold’s physical market is too small to absorb wealth shifts, meaning small reallocations drive outsized price moves; this creates both upside convexity and downside volatility risk.

• Includes Full slide deck presentation and 6 minute mini-podcast