Housekeeping: Good Morning
Featured Analysis:
Inflation: The End of Plausible Deniability
TS Lombard says the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of plausible deniability as inflation stays above target and the labor market strengthens. With both traditional excuses for patience fading, Kevin Warsh’s new policy task forces may provide political and intellectual cover, but they cannot resolve the underlying problem. If inflation fails to improve soon, the FOMC will face growing pressure to tighten policy and defend its credibility against charges that rates remain insufficiently restrictive.
CPI Preview: Cool Headline, Sticky Core
JPMorgan expects June CPI to show lower headline inflation driven by falling energy prices while core inflation remains moderately above the Federal Reserve's target. The bank views the most likely outcome as supportive for equities, with earnings season increasingly overtaking macroeconomic data as the market's primary short-term catalyst.
In Other News:
Data on Deck: CPI
MONDAY, JULY 13
5:25a Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks
12:30p Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller speaks
TUESDAY, JULY 14
8:30a Consumer price index (June) (prev 0.5% → est -0.2%)
8:30a CPI year over year (prev 4.2% → est 3.8%)
8:30a Core CPI (June) (prev 0.2% → est -0.2%)
8:30a Core CPI year over year (prev 2.9% → est 2.8%)
10a Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies to Congress
12:40p Federal Reserve governor Michael Barr speaks
1p Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks
1:30p Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook speaks
2:55p Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman speaks
WEDNESDAY, JULY 15
8:30a Producer price index (June) (prev 1.1% → est -0.2%)
8:30a Core PPI (June) (prev 0.8% → est 0.3%)
8:30a PPI year over year (prev 6.5%)
8:30a Core PPI year over year (prev 5.1%)
8:30a Empire State manufacturing survey (July) (prev 5.7 → est 9.4)
8:45a New York Fed President John Williams speaks
10a Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh testifies to Congress
1p Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook speaks
2p Fed Beige Book
6:30p St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speaks
THURSDAY, JULY 16
8:30a U.S. retail sales (June) (prev 0.9% → est 0.2%)
8:30a Retail sales minus autos (June) (prev 0.5% → est 0.0%)
8:30a Initial jobless claims (July 11) (prev 215,000 → est 218.000)
8:30a Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey (July) (prev 10.3 → est 9.5)
10a Pending home sales (June) (prev 3.8% → est -0.1%)
12:30p Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan speaks
7p Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Philip Jefferson speaks
FRIDAY, JULY 17
8:30a Import price index (June) (prev 1.9% → est 0.8%)
8:30a Import price index minus fuel (June) (prev 0.8%)
8:30a Housing starts (June) (prev 1.18 million → est 1.31 million)
8:30a Building permits (June) (prev 1.41 million → est 1.41 million)
9:15a Industrial production (June) (prev 0.1% → est 0.3%)
9:15a Capacity utilization (June) (prev 76.2 → est 76.3%)
10a Consumer sentiment (prelim) (July) (prev 49.5 → est 50.5)
10a Home builder confidence index (July) (prev 35 → est 35)
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