CPI Gold Prep | MARKET RUNDOWN
Gold is getting a lot of love from US investors as they feel it has less downside volatility than stocks now.
Housekeeping: The Active Trader post will be out between 8:30 and 9:00.
Today:
Market Rundown
CPI Prep
GF, JPM, GS, MS Analysis
1- Market Rundown:
Good Morning. The dollar is down 18. Bonds are stronger slightly. Stocks are dead unchanged. Gold is up $11. Silver is up 41c. Oil is up $1.00. Markets are looking for a very low CPI today. Gold is getting a lot of love from US investors as they feel it has less downside volatility than stocks now.
THURSDAY, JAN. 12
7:30 am Philadelphia Fed Patrick Harker
8 am St. Louis Fed President James Bullard
8:30 am Consumer price index Dec. -0.1% 0.1%
8:30 am Core CPI Dec. 0.3% 0.2%
8:30 am CPI (year-over-year) Dec. 6.5% 7.1%
8:30 am Core CPI (year-over-year) Dec. 5.7% 6.0%
8:30 am CPI excluding shelter (3-month SAAR) Dec. -- 1.3%
8:30 am Initial jobless claims Jan. 7 210,000 204,000
8:30 am Continuing jobless claims Dec. 31 -- 1.69 million
11:30 am St. Louis Fed James Bullard speaks
12:40 pm Richmond Fed Tom Barkin speaks
2 pm Federal budget Dec. -$69 billion -$21b 2- CPI Comment:
The best risk reward has been buying Gold these past few weeks. Some of these US based 2023 buyers are thinking: Inflation will be lower and the Fed will pivot. or inflation is not, and Gold will get hurt less than stocks. We’re not saying we agree with that but that is how the allocation trades work today- more below
CPI MoM: exp. -0.1%, down from 0.1% in November
CPI Core MoM: exp. 0.3%, up from 0.2%
CPI YoY: exp. 6.5%, down from 7.1%
CPI Core MoM: exp. 5.7%, down from 6.1%
The street is prepping for another big downside miss as the Morgan Stanley view is catching on (see below)
ANALYSIS BELOW…