Easter Weekend Recap

Russia, Taiwan and Risk Outlook

Putin announced a 30-hour truce on the eve of Easter Weekend and ordered the frontline troops to monitor if Ukraine continues to strike and be ready to respond. Based on OSINT info the ceasefire has been largely established for now. It is a grand gesture and display of willingness to negotiate with Trump, showing some respect that Trump values, despite how mainstream media and Zelensky tried to spin it.

The pressure (US warning withdrawal) from Rubio a few days ago can be deemed effective as well. Nonetheless, even if US decides to pull out, Ukraine cannot sustain for too much longer solely relying on Europe’s monetary and military aids. This Special Military Operation is coming to an end – US has basically secured the minerals deal whilst Russia gets to keep the acquired regions as “buffer zone”; the remainder yet most significant details, in our opinion, will be when to hold a general election in Ukraine (likely another ceasefire during this period), the incoming President will be the one signing the Peace Agreement with Russia to address the security concerns that satisfy both sides and how to take care of the Russian-speaking people and the culture. There is unlikely any market moving event coming out of this region going forward.

With the lack of tariff headlines in the last couple days, thankfully, we’d like to steer your attention to Taiwan. What is cooking on the island is basically Ukraine’s plot with very similar outlines and execution. The ruling party (the DPP Government) started persecuting some Chinese women who married to Taiwanese husbands decades ago, moved to the island and legally lived and worked like every other citizen because they promoted “unification through force” online.