Rabo: Central Bank Rate Cuts Will Save us
or maybe not
TL/DR
Central Bank Rate Cuts Will Save us all except….
Central Bankers are unsure of the labour market outlook, with risks looking more in one direction - down.
They are unsure of the inflation outlook, with risks perhaps in both directions – up and down.
They are unsure of the stability of financial markets…
They are unsure of the geopolitical outlook...
Maybe rate cuts wont save us?
We need it like a Jackson Hole in the head
Global Daily
Market comments by Michael Every Global Strategist, Rabobank
Unlike the key BLS revisions to April 2023-March 2024 payrolls estimates, at -818K the largest drop since the Global Financial Crisis, today’s Global Daily was released at the same time to all - nobody can call to get it early. Losing an average 68K from each monthly jobs report changes the macro picture; subtracting ‘migrant encounters’ starting in October 2020 as a proxy for illegal immigration, the peak in cumulative post-Covid net payrolls growth was 7.23m in February 2023, then drifted lower, to just 6.38m as of July; or, does the BLS revision not matter because illegal arrivals are doing the jobs off the book rather than US workers? But tell that to the US workers, if so.