Founders AM: Immigrant Supply Shock is Real

Feb 14, 2024

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

---

We think that surprisingly strong employment growth reflects a surge in labour supply, largely due to immigration. [meanwhile] we are not convinced that stronger-than-expected labour productivity gains are real.

Standard Chartered Analysis

Contents:

1. News Headlines

2. GSTrader1

3. GSTrader2

4. JPM Alpha

5. Also: Immigrant Supply Shock is Real

Standard Chartered’s Steve Englander does some really good data dissections with novel analysis. He did it previously with NFP and Bitcoin. Here he takes something ZH has noted recently and runs with it.

His Analysis:

• Rarely do we see such job growth simultaneously accompanied by increases in productivity

• We are seeing that now. It does not make sense

Immigration is being counted in the new Jobs data, but not in the productivity