Housekeeping: Link to the Founders Meeting at bottom. + Hartnett Early Look
WHO CONTROLLED DIRECTION AND WHO INCREASED/DECREASED BETS?
WHAT DID EACH COHORT DO THIS UNCHANGED WEEK?
WHAT DID OPEN INTEREST DO?
Personal portfolio commemt
Founders Meeting Link
Hartnett Early Look
WHO CONTROLLED DIRECTION AND WHO INCREASED/DECREASED BETS?
Day 1- dn day, OI up 3.1k
Day 2- dn day OI dn 1.8k
Day 3- up day, OI dn 3.5k
Day 4- up day, OI dn 0.7k
Day 5- up day, OI up 2.6k
Day 6- up day, OI up 3.8k
Day 7- dn day, OI up 1.0k (7/23 labeled 7/24)
Day 8- up day- OI dn 12.8k 7/24 (china exchange rules go into effect)
Notes:
The 5 days covered by the CFTC were essentially a dip that ended at unchanged.
Very little net changes in the major commercial players.
Oi for the 5 days covered by the CFTC was down approximately 3k
Day 8 is preliminary
Day 8 occurs on same day as China rules going into effect. We do not think those rule changes had anything to do with the OI change
Corrected Data by RB here.
WHAT DID EACH COHORT DO THIS DOWN WEEK?
Endusers- little activity
Producers - little activity
Long Dealers- sold 2.1k longs out
Short Dealers- covered 0.8 shorts
Long Funds - added 4.4k longs
Short Funds- little activity
Long Macro - sold 4.5k longs out
Short Macro - little activity
Retail- added 1.2k longs net
The notable point is that shorts did not net add or cover during the week. implication not clear but it does show the core of these players outside of smaller CTAs are not spooked yet.
WHAT DID OPEN INTEREST DO? (It decreased)
OI dropped slightly in a net flat week that started with a dip and ended with a rally
Shorts remain comfortably positioned, but still pushing the market a little less lower each time
After the 8 days OI has made a double top and retreated implying another failure to attract fresh buying or a reversal of mindset
Most Longs and now new shorts are still not long term oriented
The failed breakout above thus far in this context is range bound
Still using prior bottom in OI as our line in the sand… If the OI breaks back above that and the market is only marginally lower, then we have potential for a big up move.. and we failed to break it last week
VBS is ready with the levels for settlement that matter most being these 3 bollinger band levels
Above 4151.14 = trigger for bullish momentum
Above 4067.59 = bullish neutral
Below 4067.59 = bearish neutral
Below 3984.04 = bearish momentum trigger
Early shorts are beginning to book profits as are bullion banks
New shorts and longs are increasingly impatient and light on capital
Total Shorts are still very much in the money
Tipping point for bigger short covering rally still does not seem evident yet
Personal:
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