Founders: Gold CoT Analysis and Hartnett Likes The Gold Again

[O]wn gold as hedge against nightmare of higher yields *and* lower US dollar on loss of credibility of US policy makers.

- Michael Hartnett

Good Afternoon. There will be *No Founder’s CoT Discussion* today. However, a Gold CoT analysis begins this video with a new and (hopefully) helpful revelation for all of us to keep an eye on going forward.

Video Timestamps:

1. 0:42 to 14:00— Gold CoT Analysis

2. 14:00 to 15:25— Content Rundown

3. 15:25 to 44:30— Hartnett Breakdown

4. 44:30 to 45:25— Slides described

5. 45:25 to End— What if Hartnett is wrong?

Written Post Contents:

1. Gold CoT Analysis

2. Content Rundown

3. Hartnett Analysis Slides

4. BOA, TD Report Excerpts

5. Bonus

1- Gold CoT Analysis

1. When Cyclical bullish forces meet seasonal bearish forces…. volatile trading ranges are the result

   1. Open interest bottomed recently indicating a bull in Gold which was correct

   2. Open interest continues to decrease in a rally, indicating shorts covering, but no new longs getting in.

   3. Taken together, seasonal unwinding is preventing momentum players from adding to longs even as shorts get killed

2. Micro Gold may be something to look at more closely now

   1. May be a good indicator of domestic Gold CTA flows

   2. currently biased short

   3. Both longs and shorts are closing positions now… (seasonality example)

Seasonality keeping a lid on Cyclical Buying?

Note: Wicked rally, shorts cover.. longs do not get in.. Perhaps they got in the next day, but no follow through means be careful

Watch CTA’s in Gold….

CTAs are not too short in Gold for this time of year. Look at last year for comparison. BUT.. they are way too short given the markets stubborn price action.. Therefor, time is on our side now. The longer gold remains sideways and these guys do not go “in the money”, the more likely it is to resolve higher as these guys cover for end of year. The question is.. are they short enough to stop the rest of the Fund EOY long liquidation above? Conclusion: Buying a butterfly may be the right trade for a month.