Founders Recording: CoT For Gold and Russian Markets
Research: How are the US and Russia tied economically?
About 90 minutes long. Thanks to all who participated. Regards.
Topics Discussed:
Commitment of Traders report for Gold
Ruble and other market behavior in Ukraine invasion
Extrapolating activity post the Report date
Japanese yen
RECORDING LINK password at bottom of post
Comment: The goal of the CoT analysis is to help traders be better at reading the report for themselves. It’s about establishing a process or framework in which people can then let their own thought process form opinions. As to predicting markets, it helps you to have a rational bias. More so- it helps you to see more quickly when that bias is wrong. It is the root of a particular type of algorithm program.
For the 3 weeks we’ve been doing these now, if memory serves, GoldFix’s bias for Sunday/Monday trading was
Week 1 80/20 bullish for Monday- correct
Week 2- 60/40 bullish for Monday- correct
Week 3- 80/20 bearish for Monday- incorrect. The market dropped all day.. but only after it gapped higher. And so far, it is very strong on the week.
The analysis is then handy for overlaying changes in open interest once the next week starts and then extrapolating who did what in the moves. Seeing how things unfold helps you see why things unfold. That makes being wrong much easier to swallow and lets you adjust quicker for subsequent trades
Slides
Passcode underneath here