Founders: Special Monday Comment
Oil, Gold, Russia, Powell
Today is our day off from writing. But things are getting hit and we wanted to comment quickly:
Nervous players are enhancing behavior pre-Fed day…
Stock/Commodity/ markets are pricing Goldilocks again…
Everything that follows below translates into disinflationary behavior…
Markets:
Equity marketplaces currently assume they will pause/skip as evidenced by stocks..
Oil is again decimated, this time by Goldman throwing in the towel on their bullish thesis (report at bottom).. on a SUNDAY mind you…
…We‘re worried Gold can take a big hit if Russia sells more due to Oil prices dropping.
Russia and Lower Tensions:
We continue to be extremely wary of Economic (oil) and back-door diplomatic pressures on Russia (by MBS and China) taking a toll.
If China and SA get what they want from the US. They will ask Russia to pull back.
We’re long speculatively a small amount that does not worry us down $50 per our Founders chat on Sunday (open interest may be almost done dropping in the selloff)
Russia’s Gold selling ( if they are) size is not what is important to us. What is important is the signal it sends to the rest of the BRICS.. it tells them to lower their CB bids.
Flipside:
Any re-escalation in tensions undoes this.
Powell does not pause, and stocks should pull back big. To the extent they do not, then know this is a big bubble starting
Attached:
Goldman on Oil
One River on Crypto
CIO on The Office, Binance, and last week’s trading