Sunday’s Gold chat focused on (an oldie but goodie) reemerging pattern in Gold likely manifesting in part because of the BRICS Aug 22 event. Plus a couple bonuses at bottom
Here is a loose list of topics covered in the video
Overview
Pattern recognition
Backtesting/ regression analysis
Making an algorithm
Early career examples
Fire Drills and PTJ
Steve Cohen- earnings survey spoof
Lunch time, dead zone during the Fix
The Goal: to make money
Statistical Basis: how they are tested, used
Intuitive starting points
behavior, behavior, behavior
Event driven: earnings, one time events, infrequent but known, regularly repetitive
Gold’s Current Pattern
Friday behavior last 4-5 weeks
Friday behavior last 10-12 weeks
what is the pattern observed
what is the pattern that can automated and traded DAILY ONLY
We don’t care why…. just make money
But here is why anyway.. save money
pattern Strengthening or weakening over time?
how can we refine it: volume, OI, TA tools
geopolitical risk- the behavior is the same, the events are new
don’t go home short/long with geopolitical risk
CFTC Analysis
OI says may be near bottom
Price activity says not yet
seasonal factors
Slides
