Founders Sunday: The G20 is Dying Slowly
**NO 2 PM DISCUSSION TODAY**
***NO 2 PM DISCUSSION TODAY***
To All: Am tied up with a student today. Look for my personal traing prep this evening in lieu of our regular chat… hopefully before 6 pm.
Metals Premium will be the next post today.
Included below:
CoT slides
Academy on G-20
GSTrader 1 (The good stuff) Must Read on Economy on Rates, China, and Oil
Scan for the blue highlighted topics.. then read the yellow highlighting under each for rundown
Bonds: Why do US Rates continue to sell-off despite data pointing to soft landing in US?
China: What should we be watching for an onshore sentiment shift and, if it doesn’t come, what is next from policymakers?
Oil: What has driven the summer rally + where from here?
Mexico, Trade ideas, Consumers
CoT slides
On these futures charts Monday Holiday activity is folded into Tuesday activity.
I have risk on in Silver and stocks to consider.
The G20 Minus 2
Note: this is included because it offers the opposite take than Hartnett to markets right now
Maybe it is the new math, but is it really the G20 when neither China nor Russia show up? I’m not sure anyone really expected Russia to show up. Leaving the borders of Russia is not the best thing that Putin could do for his own safety or security. The fact that China (Xi) did not attend is more interesting. I haven’t seen an official statement as to why he did not attend, but I have read that the reasons could include anything from “solidarity with Putin” (which seems unlikely) to “escalating tensions along the Himalayan border between China and India” (was not on my radar screen) to “a fractious tone at the recent Beidaihe meeting” (which has come up in some of our recent geopolitical discussions). There is a Nikkei article alleging that Xi was reprimanded by party elders at this year’s Beidaihe meeting. Is it possible that questions about the domestic economy kept him from the G20? I don’t know, but earlier this year China abruptly changed their zero-Covid strategy after a series of protests were reported.
I don’t know why Xi did not attend the G20, but it doesn’t strike me as a good sign for global relations.
The G18 (or G20) issued a statement about the war in Ukraine (which was apparently not critical enough of Russia) citing risks to the global economy (see The Economist Who Cried Recession) and included some climate initiatives (which I am not overly optimistic about given the fact that China didn’t attend).