US Govt Shutdown. What Goldman is Hearing

Do not expect a vote next week. Expect an extension

Bottom Line:

• Shutdown remains unlikely but possible

• Do not expect a vote next week. expect an extension

• Shutdown risk grows if:

  • House Republicans fail to pass any extension before the deadline and/or

  • Dems saying they want a Ukraine spending carveout now

• At issue: how long of an (extended) extension will we get?

  • Mid January is being floated by GOP

  • Dems thinking to Mid-December only- to force issue with a Christmas deadline

• Policy items for debate include Ukraine/Israel, etc. see pic

• Overall the non-defense budget fight is the real battle later on

Summary Analysis:

(full report at bottom)

Goldman still thinks Congress is likely to extend government funding before it expires Nov. 17 however a November shutdown remains possible and, with the House unlikely to vote on an extension this week, the risks have edged up.