Founders: Worksheet for April14 2p.m.

Apr 14, 2024

∙ Paid

Plus BOA CTA report at bottom

Support:

$2337 (4/9 low), $2325 (options), $2319 (4/10 low), $2300-03 (4/8 low, options), $2266-67(4/3, 4/5 lows), $2247-50 (4/2 low, options), $2229 (4/1 low), $2187 (3/28 low), $2174-75 (3/27 low, options, 50% retracement of up move from 2/14 $1984 low to 4/9 $2365 ATH), $2157-68 (3/22, 3/25, 3/26 lows, $2146-50 (3/18, 3/19, 3/20 lows)

Resistance:

$2365 (4/9 All time high, options), $2375 (options), $2400 (options)

Overbought:

After rallying $211 (10.6%) from its 2/14 $1984 low to $2195 on 3/8, and $160 from 2/28-3/8, gold’s 14-day RSI shot to a white hot 85 - a level it hasn’t seen since March 2022 (Russian invasion). After a pullback over the subsequent 7 sessions to the 67 - 70 level, it shot back up to an overbought 75 on the rally to the $2222. After another dip to $2157 on 3/22, the rally to yesterday’s fresh all time high at $2365 took the 14-day RSI back to the white hot overbought level of 85. Today’s pullback still leaves the market very overbought at 77

Terms Matter more at this level.. to be discussed

“Suggests”
Selling is not “got shorter”
Got shorter deltas = when options are included
Selling= no options
From and into
driving = acting first= in control
market profile basics
- normal vs trend day = supply versus demand
- failed auctions
- key words are FAILED, TREND, and NORMAL

Assumptions:

Gold is a fund-driven market with longs as primary drivers and first movers
Long funds are the biggest primary drivers
short funds are the second biggest drivers
Banks are mostly dealers and react to funds using their own bias to guide them
- when they drive direction it is hard to see
Funds determine directional impulse- ACTORS
Bank dealers determine magnitude of effect- REACTORS

The weekly changes

Match up overview

The day by day sheet

The day by day analysis

Date- higher/lower, open/close, range, OI change

market participant behavior
signal or noise based on OI and range combo
market profile description

4/3- Up day, green candle. small range, OI dn 0.3k

suggests shorts covered into longs selling
Noise
Normal day normal variation higher

4/4- Down day, red candle, small range, OI dn 0.3k

suggests longs sold into shorts covering
Noise
normal day lower

4/5 Up day, green candle, Decent range, OI Up 9.9k

suggests longs adding into shorts adding
Signal: Normal Fund behavior- longs driving
Trend day higher

4/8 Up day, green candle, decent range, OI dn 5.7k

Suggests Shorts covered into longs selling
Signal: normal fund behavior- shorts driving
Normal variation, failed downside auction

4/9 Up day, green candle, small range, OI up 1.7K

suggests longs adding into shorts selling
Signal: Normal Fund behavior- longs driving
Normal Variation

4/10 down day, red candle, small range, OI up 0.4k

suggests adding into longs adding
Noise
Normal day

4/11 Up day, green candle, large range, OI up 17.7k

suggests longs adding into shorts adding
Signal: Normal Fund behavior- longs driving
Normal variation / Trend day higher

4/12 Down day, red candle, large range OI dn 5.9k

suggests shorts covered into longs selling,
Signal: normal fund behavior- shorts driving
Normal variation, failed upside auction
- failed upside auction plus OI drop suggests topping action

Net Long Short Traditional Divisions Futures Only and Futures w/O