Founders Zoom Note: Ride of the Volkyries
Good Morning. There will be 2 emails today, the weekly and this one. Zoltan Poszar’s latest missive, Ride of the Volkyries came out late Friday. It is a circle-back to his prior entitled “Volcker Moment” and broken down here along with that report in original form.
His Friday post is a victory lap by the economist of sorts, so we will take ours in spotting his logic and endorsement of that path he laid out as being likely to happen. And so far he, (and we by drafting on his work) were right. But it is also a long piece, seemingly laying out the next path dependent actions of our beloved Fed.
What he said made alot of sense 2 months ago based on our knowledge base, his logic, and the lack of any real alternatives given the landscape the Fed must navigate right now
FOUNDERS CLASS PREVIEW
Today’s Founders class (Founder’s archives here) will be a coldish read-through and commentary on Friday’s Zoltan piece before most put out their opinion on what he is talking about.
It may be helpful in digesting what comes next once ZH clues us in He has gotten so popular on Fintwit these days in no small part from Zerohedge’s Zoltan explanations and endorsements there is a cottage industry of analyst takes (Not us, we’re students!) on it now. To help you prepare, the first page of the report is below the divider.
The key summary is this paragraph:
Our aim today is to highlight the risk that we might be dealing with a Fed that won’t be intimidated by curve inversions and asset price corrections, but will be emboldened by them to do more – a Fed that pushes against a curve inversion by hiking more than what’s priced today to tighten financial conditions further, despite recession risks or perhaps even with a (covert) recession goal in mind in order to maintain price stability.
We aim to read it through this morning after doing the Weekly report. Some of his work is dense to understand, but this thread he has been on is pretty clear to us…. we pray it remains that way.
Suggested reading:
Part 1 of his thesis on what the Fed must do.
We will also go look at Gold and Silver from and open interest perspective for clues this atrocious downdraft may be slowing or over.
ZOOM Link HERE: passcode needed can be found below divider
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/83288267788