Geopol: Oil and gold surge on Trump’s Tehran warning
Temporary Calm Reverses
Bottom Line: Oil and gold are rising again after President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran following earlier optimism that the Israel Iran conflict would remain contained
Includes updated War Decision Tree analysis and ING Commodity comment on the development
Contents
Intro: Temporary Calm Reverses
G7 Interrupted by Middle East Urgency
Markes this morning
G7 Position: Israel’s Defense Rights Affirmed
Strategic Outlook
BCA Sum of Conditional Probablilites
ING Analysis
GoldFix Final Comment: “It’s Both”
Intro: Temporary Calm Reverses as Diplomatic and Military Signals Collide
Markets initially reacted with optimism on reports that Iran signaled openness to de-escalate tensions with Israel and resume nuclear negotiations. This contributed to a dip in Brent crude oil to $71.40 and broad equity gains across Western markets. The Euro Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%, while in the U.S., the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq surged 1.5%.
However, those gains proved short-lived. Later in the session, oil rebounded to $73.50, and equity futures turned negative, reflecting renewed geopolitical uncertainty.