*Geopol: When Iran Falls China Won't Help- ZeroHedge Edit

Part 1

Iran Will Fall, China Won’t (Can’t?) Catch Her

Authored by Mavs and VBL

This is a 2-part analysis. In the first part, we do a deep dive into the Chinese view on how committed they are to Iran from a long-term, structural, and cultural point of view. The second part (later this week) will relate to how these can manifest in markets.

Contents (2200 words)

1. Bottom Line/ Introduction

2. Too Modern for Its Politics

3. The Shah’s Ghost

4. The Worst of Both Worlds

5. China Won’t Catch this Falling Ally

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Bottom Line/ Introduction:

Iran is not a viable partner for China (or anyone for that matter) for long-term strategic investment, as any major change to its political order is likely to be disruptive and possibly violent.

Iran’s current regime is fundamentally unstable and disconnected from the country’s social and economic realities. Iran faces deep internal dissent, a paralyzed hybrid political system, and a lack of strategic coherence. Its persistent anti-American stance is seen as outdated and unconvincing, especially to its educated population.

Historically aligned with the West under the Pahlavi dynasty, Iran now finds itself isolated, unable to attract meaningful alliances with powers like China due to weak cultural, historical, and strategic ties.

The regime’s structure—a mix of theocracy and elected government—creates paralysis rather than strength, drawing comparisons to the collapsing Qing Dynasty in early 20th-century China. China knows this and to the extent they can, will distance themselves form Iran if things deteriorate further there.