Gold & Silver: Breaking Down ANZ's New Report

Full analysis and charts

Contents:

1. The ANZ Report’s Key Points

2. Gold: A Precarious Balance

3. Silver: A Symphony in Harmony with Gold

4. Platinum: Unassuming

5. ANZ Technicals

6. GoldFix Comment

1- The ANZ Report’s Key Points

• A ‘Goldilocks’ scenario in the US has taken some sheen from gold in the short term.

• Our medium to long-term view on gold remains bullish as structural drivers are still in place.

• Technically, price is in a downtrend with key support lying near USD1900/oz. A break of this level could trigger a fresh sell-off.

Here is our writeup of their report

2- Gold: A Precarious Balance

The new ANZ report starts off focusing on the US macroeconomic landscape; noting it casts a shadow on the gold market. A 'Goldilocks' scenario, embodied by an ideal equilibrium, potentially poses a short-term drag on gold.

Amidst the Federal Reserve's unwavering hawkish stance and the backdrop of easing inflation, the looming specter of higher real rates ( indeed they are already here, and yet Gold still remains buoyant) and renewed US dollar strength emerges as headwinds.

Beneath the surface, a more nuanced view emerges. The Fed, they think, approaches the twilight of this hiking cycle. We’re not so sure, but understand the logic. Even if they are, stocks are too high given where rates are and we’re afraid that has yet to work through the system.

The USD, ensnared in a structural downtrend, could be further weakened by the Bank of Japan's Yield Curve Control adjustment, bolstering their softer stance on the greenback.

This has been a weight on Gold

We do not agree with the BOJ part of their assessment. We think ANZ is giving the BOJ too much credit.