Housekeeping: Good Morning
Featured Analysis:
Hartnett: CPI Headed to 5% by November
Hartnett argues that the late-cycle boom remains intact, but investors should begin taking chips off the table as inflation trends toward **5% by the midterm elections**, positioning remains extremely bullish, and a more hawkish policy backdrop looms. While peace-driven optimism and strong earnings continue to support equities, history suggests that rising bond yields, accelerating inflation, and tighter financial conditions ultimately determine when speculative cycles end.
In Other News:
Data on Deck:
MONDAY, JUNE 15
No major US releases
TUESDAY, JUNE 16
No major US releases
WEDNESDAY, JUNE 17
8:30a Core Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.7% → est 0.5%)
8:30a Retail Sales m/m (prev 0.5% → est 0.5%)
2p Federal Funds Rate (prev 3.75% → est 3.75%)
2p FOMC Economic Projections
2p FOMC Statement
2:30p FOMC Press Conference
THURSDAY, JUNE 18
8:30a Unemployment Claims (prev 229K → est 225K)
FRIDAY, JUNE 19
8a Bank Holiday
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Technical Comments:
Fish hooks
