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Hartnett Redux: Why You Own Gold and Trade Oil in War

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DB: Gold's Reaction in Crisis Varies Greatly

Mar 4
DB: Gold's Reaction in Crisis Varies Greatly

Historical data shows gold’s reaction to geopolitical crises usually develops over one to two weeks and varies widely across events, with frequent early drawdowns. Silver typically moves alongside gold. The more meaningful signal currently is gold’s positive crossover versus USD-implied fair value, indicating resilience even as the dollar strengthens.


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Data on Deck: Jobs

  • MONDAY, MARCH 29:45 amS&P final U.S. manufacturing PMIFeb.51.210:00 amISM manufacturingFeb.52.6%TBAAuto salesFeb.14.8 million

  • TUESDAY, MARCH 39:55 amNew York Fed President John Williams remarks11:55 amMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari interview

  • WEDNESDAY, MARCH 48:15 amADP employmentFeb.22,0009:45 amS&P final U.S. services PMIFeb.52.310:00 amISM servicesFeb.53.8%2:00 pmFed Beige Book

  • THURSDAY, MARCH 58:30 amInitial jobless claimsFeb. 288:30 amU.S. productivityQ44.9%8:30 amImport price indexFeb.0.1%8:30 amImport price index minus fuelFeb.NA

  • FRIDAY, MARCH 68:30 amU.S. employment reportFeb.130,0008:30 amU.S. unemployment rateFeb.4.4%8:30 amU.S. hourly wagesFeb.0.4%8:30 amHourly wages year over year3.7%1:30 pmCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks 1

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Hartnett Says "Trade Oil, Own Gold" During Wartime
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