How Did We Get Here?

Nuanced Observation on Taiwan

• Prompted by an engaging reader regarding the energy policy of Taiwan (Part II, footnote 1)

• If there is a strong interest I’m happy to expand on some of the topics below with updated thoughts and facts.
  
  

Part I: Geopolitical Shit Takes for Normies

Let’s begin with Taiwan, naturally the hottest spot in North Asia with the most significant presidential election ever coming up in less than 5 months from now.

As of today, 19 Aug 2023, most polls still have Lai (the standing vice president) as the leader in the race, hovering around 30%, whereas Hou, Ko and Kuo struggle to reach 20% and build a meaningful margin to gain an advantage in any possible collaboration dialogue. Most pundits believe that the non-green candidates should find a way to consolidate and run with just one candidate to maximize the chances of winning.

While this argument has its own merit, the truth is very hard to swallow - this form of democracy (one that involves a general election and ballot counting) is largely an illusion, particularly in Taiwan. Yet a bigger illusion for the islanders is that Taiwanese people have the right to decide their fate and future - theoretically true but pragmatically never the case. Why? Because ultimately the puppet presidents on the island have to serve the best interests of the US and/or China and the qualified candidate must at the very least meet the eyes of the US government*1.