JPM Says No 100 Basis Point Hike | Market Rundown
SPECIAL SILVER COMMENT
Housekeeping: ***Special Evolving Silver Comment at bottom***
Market Rundown:
Good Morning. The dollar is up 6 points. Bonds are weaker. Gold is down almost $15. Silver is down 20 cents and the EFP is flat. (implying no physical dip buying today yet.) Stocks are softer by 20 to 40 bps. Oil is down $1.20. Nat gas is down a large 51 cents. Grains are mixed with Corn being up 1 to 2 cents. Crypto is soft post the successful ETH Merge.
JPM Says No 100 Basis Point Hike
JPM makes their case as to why there will be no 100 basis point rate hike now.
Summarizing their logic:
The target was set earlier in the year.
It makes no sense for them to speed up this much as they get closer to their stated target ( driving analogy)
To do so would therefore imply a higher terminal target — above 5%
From that report:
Tuesday’s CPI report left a mark, and financial market expectations for a full percentage point hike next week have now climbed to about one in three…
….we think the odds of a 100bp move— though certainly not zero—are lower than 1/3rd.
Why not zero odds of a 100bp move next week? The Committee’s choice of the size of moves this year has been inscrutable, and the minutes have given little guidance as to why 25 vs. 50 vs. 75bp has been chosen.
Which can kind of imply if they do raise rates a full percentage point, markets should consider panicking that the Fed still has no real handle on the problem.
CONTINUES AT BOTTOM...Zen Moment:
Bear Takes Profits After Good Trading Day.
