LBMA 2024: Silver Over Gold This Year
UBS On Platinum
The annual survey at the 2024 London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) Precious Metals Conference highlights a strong outlook for precious metals, with silver leading the pack as the most promising asset heading into 2025. In contrast, gold, while still favored, is seen as a slightly less dominant force compared to its silver counterpart. The survey reflects shifting sentiment among market participants about how these metals will perform in the near future.
Here’s what the LBMA survey found:
Silver: The top pick among delegates, with 45% expecting it to outperform in the precious metals sector. Silver prices are predicted to rise sharply, reaching $45 an ounce—a significant 43% increase from current levels. Industry experts pointed out that silver’s growing industrial demand is outpacing mine supply, driving this bullish sentiment.
Gold: Following closely, 37% of attendees expect gold to remain a strong performer. On average, gold prices are forecasted to hit $2,941.40 an ounce by this time next year, reflecting a 10.5% gain from today’s prices. While central banks have been increasing their gold reserves, investors are beginning to recognize the metal’s role in portfolio diversification amid a backdrop of economic uncertainty.
Platinum: Coming in third, with 16% of participants expecting platinum to shine in the next 12 months. Prices are expected to climb to $1,147.90 per ounce, benefiting from industrial demand and a tightening supply.
Palladium: Least favored by the group, only 2% of delegates see palladium outperforming. It’s projected to rise modestly by 6%, reaching $1,058.90 per ounce by October 2025.
Last year, LBMA delegates underestimated gold’s potential, predicting prices around $1,990 per ounce. Fast forward a year, and gold has risen by a third, with prices now hovering around $2,661.90. Paul Fisher, LBMA’s chairman, attributes this to a resilient U.S. economy and rising inflation, which have helped propel the precious metal.
Panelists at the event stressed gold’s evolving role in a diversified portfolio. “Gold is a very effective portfolio diversifier,” said Robert Mullin, general partner at Marathon Resource Advisors. “Central banks have figured that out, and I think Western investors are just starting to.”
Silver, however, stole the spotlight, with experts predicting its upward trajectory driven by robust industrial demand and ongoing supply constraints. Mitchell Krebs, CEO of Coeur Mining, remarked, “I have never seen a better outlook for silver.” Matt Watson, founder and president of Precious Metals Commodity Management, echoed this sentiment, referring to silver as the “do-all metal on the Periodic Table.”
In the short term, gold is expected to continue its upward momentum, but silver could be the real winner come 2025. Meanwhile, platinum and palladium show potential but are unlikely to match the performance of their gold and silver counterparts.
The takeaway: Silver is set to be the star according to those surveyed; but gold continues to be a safe bet for those looking to hedge against economic uncertainty.
The question you have to ask yourself is this: Do you believe them.
Here’s UBS on Platinum… Not very bullish at all: