Macro Storm Coming to Gold

Flow Show Comment: Obvious Gold Bears are Obvious

Housekeeping: Good Morning.

Intro: Find below some thoughts on Gold post reading Hartnett’s Flow Show report (that analysis out later today)

Contents:

1. Macro Storm Coming

2. Secular Bull vs Macro Bear

3. Gold Bears Are Predictable

4. Bulls May Not Get Spooked This Time

5. The Macro Bull Case

6. The Super-Stag Case

Macro Storm Coming

Everything about Hartnett’s report this week is bearish for gold. He doesn't talk about gold negatively at all, but everything he's talking about in there is bearish for gold. It is bearish for stocks more, but it is somewhat bearish for Gold as well. Unless the Fed eases.

What matters now, assuming that everything is actually bearish for gold, assuming that he's right economically: is how *low* can they get Gold before things turn around economically?

Secular Bull vs Macro Bear

The pricing of gold is now entering a battle between secular forces like BRICS, US debt, entrenched anti-Goldilocks inflation, Mercantilism, etc on the one hand.

And on the other hand, bearish macroeconomic/financial forces are about to assert themselves.