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Making Sense of Today

BONUS: ING ON MIDDLE EAST WAR

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Iran Oil: Goldman Looks at Hormuz Strait Risks

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Mar 2
Iran Oil: Goldman Looks at Hormuz Strait Risks


Goldman estimates crude is already pricing an $18 per barrel geopolitical risk premium, roughly equivalent to a one-month full shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz with partial offsets. About one-fifth of global oil and nearly 19 percent of LNG transit the Strait.

Dubai Bullion Flows Disrupted

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Mar 2
Dubai Bullion Flows Disrupted

Gold shipments through Dubai are being severely curtailed after airlines suspended regional routes amid Iran-related strikes. While the disruption may prove temporary, Dubai is a critical conduit to Switzerland, India, and Hong Kong. Traders expect safe-haven demand to dominate early price action, with futures and OTC markets leading.


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Data on Deck: Jobs

  • MONDAY, MARCH 29:45 amS&P final U.S. manufacturing PMIFeb.51.210:00 amISM manufacturingFeb.52.6%TBAAuto salesFeb.14.8 million

  • TUESDAY, MARCH 39:55 amNew York Fed President John Williams remarks11:55 amMinneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari interview

  • WEDNESDAY, MARCH 48:15 amADP employmentFeb.22,0009:45 amS&P final U.S. services PMIFeb.52.310:00 amISM servicesFeb.53.8%2:00 pmFed Beige Book

  • THURSDAY, MARCH 58:30 amInitial jobless claimsFeb. 288:30 amU.S. productivityQ44.9%8:30 amImport price indexFeb.0.1%8:30 amImport price index minus fuelFeb.NA

  • FRIDAY, MARCH 68:30 amU.S. employment reportFeb.130,0008:30 amU.S. unemployment rateFeb.4.4%8:30 amU.S. hourly wagesFeb.0.4%8:30 amHourly wages year over year3.7%1:30 pmCleveland Fed President Beth Hammack speaks 1

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ING ON MIDDLE EAST WAR:

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