Market Rundown | Russia Invades Ukraine
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Expect Multiple posts today as we try to keep premium members up to date on significant developments.
Good morning: Russia invaded Ukraine last night. Everything is reacting to that. at 1AM ET things had ramped up. But by 6 am things peaked for now.
The dollar is up 92 points. Bonds are up considerably. Stocks are down between 2.5 and 3.5%. Gold is up $54 right now and touched a high of about $1975. Silver is up 3.5%.
Oil is up 7.65% touching $100 in WTI terms. Grains are up between 5 and 7%. Crypto is acting like a stock and is all much lower.
Comment for today:
Everything is a candle in the darkness now, as opposed to a high powered flashlight.
Our hope is to illuminate the dark corners of what is going on to help you make your own mind up. Whether that be as trader, investor, or concerned human being.
Russia Invades Ukraine
Russian forces attacked targets across Ukraine, prompting international condemnation and threats of further sanctions. The government in Kyiv said it is a “full-scale invasion” and called for international support. Moscow said it had taken out military facilities while a senior legislator from the ruling party said the aim was to ensure a new government in Ukraine is friendly to Russia. European leaders are meeting later today to discuss what Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called a “package of massive, targeted sanctions.” -Bloomberg
GeoPol Markets
Assume No Fed hikes. Now we may see the RRP money move
Europe ruled out SWIFT and oil & gas sanctions yesterday
The invasion may change that but it is not guaranteed.
OIL: This means oil risk is not war/nowar anymore.. it is now “how much is built in” based on sanction risk?
Nat Gas: same for this
Ruble: slammed on econ risk, but bouncing a bit now. watch for deals wiht China being announced. Russia is not operating without na economic contingency plan
Gold: assume Russia and China have a back up plan for their own bilateral trade using Gold in the wings.. This is speculation, but based on previous behavior. Here is a very good technical analysis done 2 weeks ago by a guy we trust
Traders
Technical levels courtesy of Mooranalytics.com.
Go there for 2 weeks free of his numbers and analysis. Today we are showing his levels as a courtesy to GoldFix paying subscribers.
These are prices where markets are expected to have at least some pause before/ if they cross them in either direction. Numbers are guides on a day like today. But his are very good guides. Continues below the fold