Morning Rundown | MS on Geopolitical Turmoil and The Global Economy
Follow The Metal, Follow The Money
GoldFix Note: Follow the metal.
To those who rightfully note the persistent disconnect between physical price and Comex futures. It cannot last forever. There are many ways it can end. One way it ends is with Comex losing its global status as a reliable pricing mechanism for Gold and Silver. Once that is understood, the only thing that remains is figuring out ways that it could (will) happen. Markets are making it happen now; slowly and irretrievably. Just not on our terms or our schedule.
Follow the metal.
It doesn’t have to end with Comex price mirroring “real” physical price. In fact it won’t end that way. Notice the US doesn’t permit physical spot to trade here on an exchange? The US uses finanicalization to corral assets from competing with Dollar dominance. One way this is hedged is with physical. Stackers are right. Same exact thing with Bitcoin.
Market Rundown
Good Morning: Markets are more broadly discounting a possible peace process coming out of Europe. The dollar is down 70 bps. Bonds are much softer. Stocks are stronger, but only 50bps so far. Gold is down $35 from Comex settlement. Silver is down 63 cents from same. Oil is again much weaker after being up almost $1.70 for a very brief moment this morning. Wheat is down, and Crypto is up.
There are two things that can reignite the war fear trade. A peace talk ending with words like : “Unfortunately…” and actual escalation. There are few things that can make the world globally and blindly trust each other on trade again.
Cheers
Podcast
Guidance
Ukraine is seeking a cease-fire agreement in talks with Russian negotiators starting Tuesday in Turkey, aiming for an improvement in the humanitarian situation that has caused millions to flee their homes in the wake of Moscow’s invasion. The country's military recaptured the town of Irpin west of the capital from Russian troops, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden said his weekend remarks that Vladimir Putin cannot stay in power reflected his “moral outrage,” and didn’t mean the U.S. had adopted a policy of regime change. NATO allies are split on whether they should talk to Putin and what further weapons to send to Ukraine. - Bloomberg
Zen Moment
Have a good one
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