Must Read: Middle East War Scenarios
Geopolitics, Energy, Food, and Economic impacts
[W]ar that escalates beyond Israel-Gaza is likely to have a wide range of destabilizing effects. Geoeconomics, geopolitics, and markets could all experience far more extreme bifurcation, polarisation, and violent volatility.
- Michael Every
Normally Micheal Every’s Rabobank daily missives are available for all to read on ZH. Today’s is different. Micheal teams up with Joe DeLaura in Energy, and Stefan Vogel GM Australia & New Zealand to write a rather comprehensive piece on what has happened, what is happening, and what may happen.
Background:
Michael Every has been plugged in this past year paying close attention to and noting the changing global zeitgeist away from neo-keynesian governance and towards a more mercantilist economic model. The fact that he said the word mercantilism a couple times over the last year and wasn’t flogged for it is amazing.
He has been rightly aware that the ideological deterioration of our globalized economy can and will likely lead to the dollar being replaced by the gun and has said so several times, most recently here:
Truly, his recent convalescent research was well timed, as his fears of an economy in transition from Pax Americana to No-Pax-At-All are coming to pass.
Mercantilism is accompanied by dangerous stuff, and while it’s not the problem here, it is an awkward solution due to what accompanies it- acrimony and avarice from a global divorce.
Anyway, this is his work and we applaud it because he’s focused attention to the biggest picture without missing the tactical risks at a time when we need someone to truly be a global strategist.
Also, we are familiar with Joe DeLaura’s work and like it. We do not know Stefan’s work, nor enough about Grains to be effective in commenting.
Sections:
The global insecurity order
Likely implications
War scenarios
War it is: the only is issue how bad it gets
Energy impact
Food and agri impact
Conclusion
No emphasis added