Must Read: The US Must Spend or Die Now
Thesis: Gold's next driver is the emerging US policy shift to outspend competitors in a global arms race for economic supremacy.
Trump’s MAGA Plan A—bilateral deals, infrastructure, and spending restraint—ran into walls. The Fed won’t cut fast. Congress won’t cut at all. So we’ve entered Plan B: cheap energy, a weaker dollar, and fresh stimulus.
Contents (1900 words)
Intro: Trump’s New Plan is “Spend to Grow”
Thesis: The US Must Spend or Die Now
The Business of America Is Spending-Booms Again
Geopolitical Supply-Side Logic
More Trade Deals and Less Tariff Talk
China Consumption Shift Starts a Chain-Reaction
Capital Arms Race and the Meta Misfire
Dollar Stablecoins: The Quiet Giants of Global Finance
Payment Chain Infrastructure as Monetary Policy
Crypto’s Coming of Age: The Circle Moment
Conclusion: Watch What the Market Sees First
Intro: Trump’s New Plan is “Spend to Grow”
Trump’s MAGA Plan A—bilateral deals, infrastructure, and spending restraint—ran into walls. The Fed won’t cut fast. Congress won’t cut at all. So we’ve entered Plan B: cheap energy, a weaker dollar, and fresh stimulus.
America now faces a choice: spend more, or fall behind. Below, we break down key points from a sharp analysis by a hedge fund executive we just read, showing:
Why a new spending boom is all but certain
Why this boom (not geopolitics) will drive the next surge in gold
Why stablecoins may matter more than AI
Everyone now agrees: spending caused the problem. Spending will be the solution. As the saying goes: if you're going through hell, keep going.
If you follow our work read this.
Thesis: The US Must Spend or Die Now
Michael Hartnett often says the world must spend more as the U.S. spends less. So far, he’s been right about America’s thrift and the strength of foreign stocks. But that divergence can’t last. If it does, the U.S. falls behind at a moment it can’t afford to.
Hartnett: We’re Gonna Need a Bigger Bubble (if Tariffs fail)
“If Trump cannot do things the right way, then the temptation to do things the easy way to fight another day and the rationalizations that come along with it will begin. And that means bubbles. Weaker US dollar faster. Trade deals cut with sugar highs for us. Not meaningful long-term benefits. Mortgage the future for present in the election cycle mentality.”
To stay in this economic race, (barring free energy or technology we keep completely our own- lol) the U.S. must outspend its rivals. That means weakening the dollar, selling its resources, rebuilding industry, and spending without restraint. A global economic arms race is coming.
Thus, The US will move to outspend competitors and a global arms race for economic supremacy will be born.
We can only hope the new bridges built will not “lead to nowhere”, but the spending must happen. Everything discussed below points to more spending as a cure for what ails us. Frugality is done.
That is Gold's next driver.