"Oil Prices are asymmetrically skewed to the downside" bank says

Oil Markets, Tariffs and OPEC+ Trump sanctions

Tariffs & OPEC+ dominate

• Prices slide as OPEC+ returns and economic outlook darkens; supply risks from sanctions have not materialised

• Oil market in a small surplus in 2025; OPEC+ output hikes could see surplus growing materially in 2026

• 2025 Brent forecast remains USD73/b, with risks skewed to the downside; 2026 assumption unchanged at USD70/b