Part 1: Not All Silver is the Same
China's Solar Industrial Silver Demand Examined
Intro
This is a multi part Silver piece exploring in more detail the industrial supply demand dynamics in China with a focus on that nation’s burgeoning Solar Panel manufacturing. It is co-authored and a collaborative effort between VBL and Bai Xiaojun.
Previous collaboration can be found in Peak China Silver: The Looming Extinction Event
Sections:
Background: Copper-Envy
The BOA Silver Report
China Demand
Indian Demand
New Questions Raised
Industrial Silver Uniformity
Heavy Silver
Bottom Line: Not All Silver is The Same
Background: Copper-Envy
A recent BOA report broken down for GoldFix subscribers (at bottom again) did some analysis of Silver’s industrial supply/demand dynamics against a growing global renewable energy backdrop. Yet BOA’s excellent piece was the only one we’d even heard of out there. Why? We were jealous.
Frankly, we could not understand why Copper was getting all the attention and so did some digging. Let’s be fair.. if global Central Banks were hoarding gold against their own solvency risk, and climate change concerns were pushing copper use for renewable energy… how do you not talk about Silver??
The BOA Silver Report
While that report just mentioned correctly stated China had been a large importer of Silver for much of recent history, it also noted in 2022 and the first part of 2023 China actually turned net exporter.
The question thus became, is this a new downward demand trend or is this an aberration within the existing trend? No explanations in the report were given for the change in China behavior, yet it was prominently mentioned.
China, Net Silver Importer, turns exporter…
Initial observations cited a combination of forces converging in 2022; Specifically China’s slowing domestic demand and spiking foreign investment demand.
The China slowdown observation seems self-explanatory, and is further evidenced by coming stimulus measures to get things on track again.