Platinum's Fourth Deficit

GFN – LONDON: The World Platinum Investment Council forecast a fourth consecutive annual platinum deficit of about 297,000 ounces for 2026, even after the market recorded its first quarterly surplus in six quarters, underscoring the metal's reliance on investment flows.

The forecast, published in the council's Platinum Quarterly for the first quarter of 2026, marks a modest increase on its prior estimate and extends a run of annual shortfalls that began in 2023. The first quarter itself produced a surplus of 268,000 ounces, the market's first in six quarters, as total supply rose 18% year-on-year while demand fell 31%, driven primarily by exchange-traded-fund and exchange-stock outflows totalling 374,000 ounces.

Those outflows coincided with a broad pullback in precious metals after platinum reached a record near $2,923 an ounce in late January. Full-year demand is projected to fall 9% to 7,674,000 ounces, though the council expects the quarter's investment outflows to reverse over the balance of the year, restoring the deficit.

"Platinum's fundamentals remain very, very supportive," said Edward Sterck, director of research at the World Platinum Investment Council, adding that investment is expected to return and recoup some of the first quarter's losses.

The assessment frames the recent price weakness as a function of investor positioning rather than a structural improvement in supply, with above-ground inventories continuing to provide only a limited buffer against mine output concentrated in South Africa, Russia and Zimbabwe. The pattern mirrors developments across the precious-metals complex, where investment and official demand have remained the principal swing factors through a period of price consolidation. The development reflects platinum's continued dependence on investment flows to offset persistent constraints in primary supply.