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Transcript

Poland Wants the Gold, China Wants Taiwan

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Part 2: Interpreting Shanghai- Comex Spread Movement

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Jan 21
Part 2: Interpreting Shanghai- Comex Spread Movement

This episode presents a conditional-probability framework for interpreting Shanghai–Comex silver spread movements. It explains how spread direction, relative to market direction, reveals whether Chinese demand or U.S. supply controls pricing. The spread is treated as an observation tool for structural stress, arbitrage activity, and potential inflection signals.


ICYMI

Coming Soon/ Chat:


Data on Deck: PCE

  • MONDAY, JAN. 19None scheduled, Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

  • TUESDAY, JAN. 20None scheduled

  • WEDNESDAY, JAN. 2110:00 amConstruction spending (delayed report)Oct.--0.2%+10:00 amPending home salesDec.--3.3%

  • THURSDAY, JAN. 228:30 amInitial jobless claimsJan. 178:30 amGDP (first revision)Q34.3%

  • FRIDAY, JAN. 238:30 amPersonal income (delayed report)Nov.0.4%++8:30 amPersonal spending (delayed report)Nov.0.4%++8:30 amPCE index (delayed report)Nov.--0.3%++8:30 amPCE (year-over-year)--2.8%++8:30 amCore PCE indexNov.0.2%++8:30 amCore PCE (year-over-year)--2.8%++10:00 amConsumer sentiment (final)Jan.54.09:45 amS&P flash U.S. services PMIJan.52.59:45 amS&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIJan.51.8

Charts and Final Market Check:

  • measured moves only while checking on big picture undercurrents to reconfirm theses daily.. other wise there is no reason to sell..

  • buy puts on metal.. buy miners in selloffs now.

  • vulnerable to news now



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  • MONDAY, JAN. 19None scheduled, Martin Luther King Jr. holiday

  • TUESDAY, JAN. 20None scheduled

  • WEDNESDAY, JAN. 2110:00 amConstruction spending (delayed report)Oct.--0.2%+10:00 amPending home salesDec.--3.3%

  • THURSDAY, JAN. 228:30 amInitial jobless claimsJan. 178:30 amGDP (first revision)Q34.3%

  • FRIDAY, JAN. 238:30 amPersonal income (delayed report)Nov.0.4%++8:30 amPersonal spending (delayed report)Nov.0.4%++8:30 amPCE index (delayed report)Nov.--0.3%++8:30 amPCE (year-over-year)--2.8%++8:30 amCore PCE indexNov.0.2%++8:30 amCore PCE (year-over-year)--2.8%++10:00 amConsumer sentiment (final)Jan.54.09:45 amS&P flash U.S. services PMIJan.52.59:45 amS&P flash U.S. manufacturing PMIJan.51.8

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