Housekeeping: Good Morning
Featured Analysis:
Canada: What Do Miners Need to Get Going?
Jefferies says gold’s recent selloff reflects a sharp rise in real-rate expectations, which initially hurts bullion and miners. Much of the repricing may already have occurred. Historical evidence suggests performance improves once rate pressure eases, though miners need gold prices to stabilize and cost inflation can limit their leverage potential.
In Other News:
Data on Deck: Unemployment
MONDAY, AUGUST 3
9:45a Final Manufacturing PMI (prev 53.8 → est 53.8)
10a ISM Manufacturing PMI (prev 53.3 → est 54.0)
10a ISM Manufacturing Prices (prev 73.0 → est 70.0)
10a Construction Spending m/m (prev 0.1% → est 0.2%)
10:15a Omdia Total Vehicle Sales (prev 16.5M → est 16.3M)
2p Loan Officer Survey
TUESDAY, AUGUST 4
10a JOLTS Job Openings (prev 7.59M → est 7.44M)
10a Factory Orders m/m (prev -1.3% → est 0.2%)
10:13a RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism (prev 45.5 → est 47.5)
8:15p FOMC Member Schmid Speaks
WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5
8:15a ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (prev 98K → est 68K)
9:45a Final Services PMI (prev 53.6 → est 53.6)
10a ISM Services PMI (prev 54.0 → est 54.5)
4:05p FOMC Member Cook Speaks
4:30p President Trump Speaks
8:35p FOMC Member Daly Speaks
THURSDAY, AUGUST 6
5:30a Challenger Job Cuts y/y (prev -4.5%)
8:30a Unemployment Claims (prev 197K → est 203K)
8:30a Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q (prev 0.8% → est 0.6%)
8:30a Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q (prev 2.3% → est 2.2%)
5:30p FOMC Member Musalem Speaks
FRIDAY, AUGUST 7
8:30a Average Hourly Earnings m/m (prev 0.3% → est 0.3%)
8:30a Non-Farm Employment Change (prev 57K → est 85K)
8:30a Unemployment Rate (prev 4.2% → est 4.2%)
10a FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
3p Consumer Credit m/m (prev -0.2B → est 11.4B)
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RECAP
Yesterday was one of those fascinating sessions where almost nothing happened on the surface, yet gold delivered one of its biggest rallies in years. Stocks finished slightly lower, the dollar slipped marginally, bonds were basically unchanged, and there wasn’t a major news event to explain it. Gold, however, surged $171, or 4.2%, to around $4,248, while silver gained $2.53, also about 4.3%, to nearly $62. What’s remarkable is that gold and silver rose by almost identical percentages. Usually, silver dramatically outperforms during rallies like this, so that stood out.
