***ADDENDUM POST VIDEO RECORDING: The Change in OI Friday may not have been accurate. There may be a one day lag. That would be why the Fiday OI is such a small change.
This negates nothing about the CoT analysis. It does confirm however the Banks likely knew something very early.
The CFTC Cot report shows a definite change in behavioral relationship between Banks and Funds. These happen extremely infrequently.
From our own notes:
Having completed the full COT Analysis for Gold's last week activity, and without predicting direction.. just wanted to say.. The 5 days in the CoT report were NOT business as usual for fund/bank behavior. They were, in fact, the complete opposite of business as usual.
It happens, but not alot. And this too rare to guess why
Further: Given the large volume traded on Friday.. the OI change will be important to ascertain the extent of CTA fund ocverage versus a contiuation of the pattern witnessed last week.
IF OI collapsed this may be over. If it did not, then we have alot of room to go higher
While we are not predicting price behavior, we are saying this is not normal.
The reasons for “not normal” can be varied and multiple, and frequently entail Bullion Bank perception of opportunity and/or risk as being very lopsided.
It could just be business as usual. and Friday’s OI date will bear that out
GoldFix Rules going in to how to use these reports in Gold are simple:
Fund flows (buying or selling, adding or liquidating) dictate direction 95% of the time- proactive behavior
Bank flows dictate how far in a particular direciton a move will go 95% of the time- reactive behavior
That is not what happened in this report.
The 5 days from Wednesday to Tuesday last week were not normative behavior
As to Friday: The massive volume has to have had changed Open interest signifcantly. The data used here do not show taht change as signnificant. It is likely the OI change o nteh charting package lags by one day
If you are a macro trader in Gold, you should watch this maybe.
TD/BOA analysis below
