Report: Gold vs Industrial Commodities | Market Rundown
The question we ask is where does that tactically leave Silver? And given this backdrop they lay out— Silver is quite possibly where it should be
With natural gas prices stuck in low gear and agricultural commodities largely rangebound, it is gold and precious metals more broadly that have outperformed both industrial metals and the broader market so far this year.
-TS Lombard
Today:
Market Rundown
Gold Since SVB Bankruptcy outperforms
Zen Moment: Puppy Grooming
1- Market Rundown
Good Morning. The Dx is down 69. Stocks are up between 40 and 85 bps. Bonds are weaker across the board. Gold is up $10 at $2006. Silver Fu are up 39c. Copper is down 20bps. oil is up 30c. NG is flat to lower slightly. Corn, Soy, and Wheat are down 50, 65, and 150 bps respectively. Crypto is firmer tracking but overperforming stocks
2- Gold Versus Industrial Commodities
About TS Lombard. We discovered their work via Zerohedge as the Ukraine war started and appreciated their geopolitical takes back then. The firm’s work is very macro, policy-centric, and unbiased in discussing Fed and global economics.
Also, as a non-US firm with no apparent product to sell except expertise, there is less worry about market bias than with a securities bank.
First- here’s their bottom line on industrial commodities in the current environment:
So far this year, we have held a glass half-empty view on commodities (rangebound trading with a downward drift), which we think is the best way to approach the market for at least the rest of this quarter.
Things are unlikely to get much better until the fog in the global macro outlook starts to clear–and chances are that they will get worse in the meantime
Summing up their more sanguine view on Gold in the report: Commodities- Stay Patient
Recent demand driver: Central Bank purchases
The catalyst for the uptick in investor Interest: The bank failures
Catalysts on the Horizon: Fed Hikes Stop, Debt Ceiling risks
One Risk: China recovery fragility leaves most commodities vulnerable, although Gold has thus far differentiated itself from economic industrial demand
The question we ask is where does that tactically leave Silver? And given this backdrop they lay out— Silver is quite possibly where it should be— Stronger than Copper and straight up industrial metals, but less so than Gold.
Continues below