Soc Gen's Edwards: Almost everyone (and their dog) has given up on a US recession

"Wouldn’t it be just typical if the US economy now slides into recession?"

Housekeeping: Albert Edwards notes it would seem that data-wise, the only thing really keeping this economy out of recession is NFP, which has been contradicted by Household Employment for almost a year now. He offers what to watch for in case the recession potential isn’t really dead.

“Economists on my side of the fence are not renowned for forecasting recessions… it is career threatening to get such a call wrong. [N]ow that almost every market guru has walked back their recession call, wouldn’t it be just typical if the US economy now slides into recession? “

-A.Edwards, Soc Gen Head of Global Strategy

Complacency is dangerous. One only has to think of the fate of Julius Caesar on the Ides of March – which somewhat worryingly is this Friday. Hence now that almost every market guru has walked back their recession call, wouldn’t it be just typical if the US economy now slides into recession?

---