Good Morning recorded live early this morning. Some thoughts to share on upcoming content
Bottom Line:
Over the next three days, at least three reports will be broken down. There will be minimal other desk activity in order to focus on them, as there is a lot to read.
Transcript
Over the next three days, we have three special gold items to share. The first is a breakdown of an analysis by ANZ Bank, which we particularly like because ANZ has a very good feel for Asian demand.
The next one is Bank of America’s weekly precious metals report, which breaks down ETFs, miners, and more. It is essentially an easily read recap and worth reading.
The third one is the big one from Goldman’s Precious metals team; Their own detailed Gold Primer. You may remember that about five months ago, Bank of America put out a gold primer (they literally called it a Gold Primer). We broke that down in detail and noted that it was driven either by interest from their client base or by their own efforts to generate interest that were received positively. Here that is:
BOA: The Path to $3,500 Goes Through China Insurers
That report was a coming-out of sorts for BOA. Since then they have (largely through Hartnett), been consistently recommending gold while pointing out how underinvested their clients remain (as recently as Sunday in Hartnett Doubles Down on Gold. If they continue to make this assertion, combined with their conviction, it suggests they also sense their clients are ready to move. What “ready to move” means exactly, we do not know. But it does not mean sell.
Now Goldman Steps up
Goldman Sachs appears ready to respond as of yesterday. Their latest report signals they are preparing for more money to enter the space. Historically, this type of enthusiasm could coincide with a market top, but the time, effort, and thoroughness of this piece (combined with its transparency) make it feel more authentic. Goldman has only been conducting this type of deep gold analysis for about a year, and Lina Thomas has been excellent. It feels as though they have regained their reputation as commodity analysts.
Looking ahead, something is bound to happen. Perhaps it will be a stablecoin for gold, or a proprietary product. It could involve IPOs for new miners, vertical consolidation, or other investment-banking-level activity in the sector.
From a U.S. perspective, if the government wanted to revalue gold and monetize it (not by selling it outright, which is unlikely, but by hedging it, perhaps through the Plunge Protection Team), it could then use those proceeds to reduce debt. As a national portfolio manager, one would wait for precisely this type of investor interest to emerge before hedging into strength.
This would not technically be manipulation, though it could feel like it, since the country needs to reduce debt and cannot simply liquidate or hedge all of its gold at once. obviously there is bagholding risk if we’re correct.
Captive buying and sustained interest are necessary for something to that effect, and the current gold market may be a microcosm of that.
At present, we noted early on this year producers are selling (as confirmed in the Citibank report and other sources). At the same time, the gold market remains stable (range-bound but holding). That stability indicates there is steady buying. The dynamic of sellers above the market and buyers below could mirror a larger picture, where the United States represents selling pressure and global investors represent buying support.
We may soon be entering a very important phase of accelerated activity in this market. That typically produces wide swings with an upward bias.
Goldman’s Institutional Primer
Over the next three days, we will share breakdowns of the three reports mentioned. The final one, the Goldman Sachs report, is particularly strong and a must read. That report is what the institutional pension managers (passive fund mgr types) will read in making their decisions on how much exposure is correct for metals going forward. . It is very thorough, 25 pages long, and full of charts and material worth discussion. We will share it in original form with founders, and do a full write up for premium readers, and possibly provide a walkthrough if there is interest. I must be careful, however, since my source is protective of these things.
Bottom Line: Over the next three days, at least three reports will be released. There will be minimal other desk activity in order to focus on them, as there is a lot to read.
Cheers.
VBL
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