The situation is obviously fluid.
There are many things that we could add to this, but abstain because this is an evolving situation and would not help you as subscribers make sense of what’s happening right now.
Only facts and bottom line analysis right now..
Trump delivered on the tariffs as he said he would.
Global markets are digesting this as well as the counterpunches that could happen.
Metals as of right now, are exempt.
If you’re trying to make sense of that— here’s a very easy lens to use:
Things that we need he will not tariff.
Things we need will be tariffed against us…
The market reactions are very easy to understand broadly speaking.
Stocks are down globally, economic metals are lower, energy is lower, gold is up. Silver is unchanged…
The market reaction in this first wave is recessionary for the globe.
For the consumer, it’s extremely inflationary if things stand as they are right now.
There will Notal be tons of analysis and explanations over the next few days. We will present them to you as always.
But— If you are looking for a bigger picture comment to make sense of it all before it gets more complex,,here it is:
This is war. This is intended to make nations choose sides. Some nations will fold, some will retaliate, but all will pick sides. And those sides will be based on economic necessity and geographic proximity.
BUT- In the end, none of them matters except China. And China tariffs amount to reportedly 54%.
No reconciliation will make this go back to the way things were. None.
Whether it ends in recession, or inflation, or stagflation, or a very accommodative Fed that lowers rates… It doesn’t matter the world changed today.
If this continues, expect two new things to happen domestically. Capital Controls will begin to be discussed, and stimulus will be coming soon.
Ultimately economies will pick inflation over deflationary collapse.
Every time.
Inflationary Recessions unchecked turn into deflationary depressions? Just gotta love it- I’ll take the gold for the daily double Vanna
Let’s see where the Eurocrats decide to align.