The Dollar in a Trump White House
Morgan Stanley
TL;DR
If Trump Wins, the Dollar should be stronger
The most important driver of dollar strength under either candidate will be Trade and Geopolitics; Monetary policy does not matter as much
Interestingly: If Trump wins the Fiscal expansion will be bigger than if Harris wins. But that will be positive for the dollar based on how the money will be spent under a Republican administration.
Contents:
Overview
Election Impact on USD
Fiscal Policy Considerations Are Very ironic
Monetary Policy and the Fed Don’t Matter Much
Immigration Policy Changes Matter Little
Trade and Geopolitical Risks Matter Most
Slides
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