The Metals Train | Market Rundown
Because while retail is almost always dumb money in the short term, grass roots movements manifest in retail first.
Note: Active Trader post will be out soon as we get it.
Market Rundown:
Good Morning. The dollar is down 53 points. Bonds are stronger again with backs leading. Stocks are up 20 to 50 bps. Gold futures are up $13. Silver Fu. are up 6 cents. Oil is down almost 3.5% down $2.56. Nat Gas is flat. Bitcoin is up 90 bps and ETH is up 3%. Grains are violently mixed. Wheat is down 1.4% and Soy is up 44bps. Corn is down 55 bps.
Today:
If one reason for the US bond selloff last year was tied to the Japanese need to raise dollar-based FX reserves to fight its own bond debasement, then perhaps today is what a more normal market looks like in snapshot. Bonds are peaking their head up again while the DX is lower. US stocks are treading water because Fed pivoting is not coming back soon and the world is relocating out of US stocks, and Gold continues to benefit from fiat fleeing, Bond yields dropping and now a softer dollar. We firmly believe this is US domestic money jumping on the Gold bandwagon now for the right reasons, and think it is the beginning of a years long migration into hard assets.
But, this is also like a new nightclub opening and people are clamoring to get in. That distorts things sometimes. If Gold were to drop, that would invalidate nothing said above.
We promise you this is not institutional buying, except those institutions buying ahead of US flows today. That does not mean we will close higher today.. it means there is US buying however. Neither does it mean it’s dumb money… Because while retail is almost always dumb money in the short term, grass roots movements manifest in retail first.
Below: GS, TD, DB
Good Luck
Wednesday's DATA
10 am ISM manufacturing index Dec. 48.5% 49.0%
10 am Job openings Nov. 10.1 million 10.3 million
10 am Quits Nov. -- 4.3 million
2 pm FOMC minutes
Varies Motor vehicle sales (SAAR) Dec. -- 14.1 million
Yesterday
US equities declined on Tuesday, weighed down by tech shares. Large caps and small caps retreated: S&P 500 (-0.40%) vs. Russell 2000 (-0.60%).
Energy (-3.63%) and technology (-1.01%) lagged the broader market indices, while communication services (+1.39%) and financials (+0.38%) outperformed. Apple (-3.74%) and Chevron (-3.06%) led the Dow (-0.03%) lower; Boeing (+2.57%) and Disney (+2.41%) were the index's best performers.
The Nasdaq lost 0.76%, while the "FAAMG" stocks were mixed: Meta (+3.66%), Amazon (+2.17%), Apple (-3.74%), Microsoft (-0.10%), Alphabet (+1.09%).
The VIX rose 5.68% to 22.90. The 30-year and 10-year Treasury yields fell to 3.859% and 3.759% respectively, while the 2-year yield dropped to 4.391%
Via DataTrek
