SilverFix: Perfect Storm Begins- $50 and Beyond Awaits
Recap, Analysis, Research, and Technicals
Housekeeping: GoldFix complete watchlist here
Contents
Silver Market Summary
Drivers and Catalysts
Tariff Risk
Mineral Wars
London Has No Metal
BRICS ETF Demand
Key Bank Analysis: BOA, GS, UBS
Technicals
1. Silver Market Summary
Silver prices soared last week, touching levels not seen since 2011, as signs of physical market tightness and speculative flows collided with macro crosscurrents.
Spot silver rallied as much as 4% to $38.47/oz, while COMEX September futures peaked at $39.12/oz, creating an unusually wide arbitrage spread. The dislocation echoed the premium spike seen earlier this year when U.S. tariff threats distorted pricing between domestic and global markets. Lease rates firmed as traders scrambled for deliverable supply.
The move came suddenly: a $2 gain in just 48 hours mid-week, catching many off guard. "We're seeing some big changes in the silver market," noted one trader, citing both retail bar shortages and increased institutional positioning.
Market participants also pointed to growing concerns over Chinese scrap flows, with efforts underway to restrict outbound shipments that might tighten refining supply further.
As the dollar drifted and inflation indicators stabilized, silver diverged from gold’s flat profile, reasserting its own bullish dynamic.
We will endeavor to break down the various contributing factors listed above that preceded last week’s price action in context of the last few months.
2. Drivers and Catalysts
There are many drivers bringing us to this point. Few are new but many have gotten more obvious recently. The recent headline events ( tariffs, LBMA shortfalls, etc) that catalyzed market players to focus on these drivers have brought new (and unwanted as far as short players go) attention to the metal driving prices much higher, with still more to go. Lets run through some of the main ones.
Tariff Risk
Tariffs , especially those on base metals, have exerted a sharp impact on silver prices by disrupting the delicate balance between industrial demand and market supply. As noted in a GoldFix analysis of COMEX silver and gold, “case studies: Chinese‑origin and Russian‑origin metals” show how tariffs can elevate costs and reroute global flows
Silver EFPs and Trump-Tariff Risk
This brings us to silver, and perhaps gold as well. If tariffs are implemented, then that could have a very disruptive effect on the flow of the metal from these two key countries into the US.
The silver EFP has been reflecting a concern for this eventuality.
The Comex vaults have been transferring metal from London to the US in what is likely preparation for the tariffs threatened to be implemented.
When tariffs are imposed on key industrial metals like copper or aluminum, they often ripple into silver. Silver serves both as a monetary asset and an industrial input: higher tariffs can drive up the cost of metal-intensive manufacturing, reducing consumption. On the supply side, tariff barriers curb cross-border metal shipments—especially from large producers like China or Russia—creating sourcing tightness. That tightness can tighten the physical silver market, pushing spot premiums higher and even encouraging speculative positioning on COMEX futures.