The Unemployment Rise Begins | Market Rundown

The BLS has woven a tangled web indeed.

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Contents:

1. Bottom line

2. Jobs Data Interpreted

3. Manufacturing Data is Strong

4. Unemployment Comment

5. New Economy Manifesting

6. Every Employment Number Gets Corrected Lower

7. Here is what other analysts said today

1- Bottom Line:

Unemployment data implied slowing economy. Manufacturing data implied strong economy. In aggregate today’s reactions imply a bit of Stagflation. Here is the breakdown.

The dollar is up 60. Bonds are weaker. Stocks are down slightly. gold is down $2.0. Silver is down 23c. Oil is up $1.50. Nat Gas is up 4c. Crypto is soft.

2- Jobs Data Interpreted

Jobs Increased More than expected…

• Nonfarm Payrolls August 187K, Exp. 170K

• Participation Rate 62.8%, Exp. 62.6%

• Average Hourly Earnings 4.3% Y/Y, Exp. 4.3%, Last 4.4%

But Unemployment Also Increased more…

• Unemployment Rate jumps to 3.8%, Exp. 3.5%

• Average Hourly Earnings 0.2% MoM, Exp. 0.3%

There’s More Bad News…

• Number of people unemployed in August up by 514,000

• August Full-time jobs: down 85,000

• August Part time Jobs increased

July Jobs were revised lower…

• July payrolls revised down from 187K to 157K

With June Revised Lower Again…

• June was again revised lower

  • From 209k to 185k (July revision) to 105k (now)