Thursday Founders "AM"
Founders AM | Institutional Insights
Housekeeping: Good Morning.
Lots on Europe and Tariff takes.(see “Caught our eye”) We waited a bit to see if anything good would come out. NOPE. Nothing compelling yet.
With Trump adding then subtracting tariffs again, bank analysts are running around like headless chickens. They need to reassess every time Trump says good morning. Like the MSM, Euro bank analysts feel needed again!
Here’s our simple take repeated:
When stocks are down, and Oil is down and the USD is soft, he will not bend. if he bends, one of those markets probably forced him to
As long as Oil is lower, stocks are stable, and the Dollar is not spiking. He feels comfortable playing hardball.
But watch for “compromises” like today with Mexico when the stock market tanked. He does not compromise unless a market is concerning him.
That said, he will NOT compromise on Russia or China, at least not yet. Only friendlies. His goal is to solidify “wins” locally before facing Bear and Dragon.
The answer in what is going on with Trump and Tariffs still lies in knowing Trump’s goal. He’s a horse trader who creates crisis to “solve it”
Two posts to that that effect are still good behavioral playbooks so far
ANZ’s commodity weekly is pretty good and attached below. It has a good explanation of Copper pricing. Citi has an oil piece worth noting as well. Both of which will go premium later today.
Good luck
